未来十年,中国应该有十位自然科学诺贝尔奖得主 by Huan2007

一年一度的诺贝尔奖公布日期又到了。 

假设:自然科学领域的诺贝尔奖得主总数基本上与该国的经济总量成正相关。 

我没有时间把过去100 年获得诺贝尔奖的各国人数与GDP总量算出相关性,因为工作量太大,我又不是这个领域的科研人员。但我把过去十年的诺贝尔奖得主与GDP 相关性查看了一下,发现我这假设还是有道理的。当然,以色列这样的小国,GDP 总量小但诺贝尔奖得主多,必然不符合相关性。但这不影响总体趋势的可靠性。 

在过去的十年中,中国的GDP 在全世界的排名变化太大,无法放入其中做比较。加上科学研究的成果与得到诺贝尔奖的后移平均要10 年,我由此推理,得出的结论是:今后十年中,中国在自然科学领域里的诺贝尔奖得主数应该在10 名左右,这是取代日本的第二大经济体后的理想结果。 

证据:2000-2011 年自然科学领域诺贝尔奖(生理学与医学,物理学,化学)得奖人数

所在国排名: 

1. 美 国—— 50 人 

2. 日 本—— 9 人 

3. 英 国—— 8 人 

4. 德 国—— 6 人 

5. 法 国—— 5 人 

6. 以色列—— 4 人 

7. 俄 国—— 2 人 

7. 澳大利亚—— 2 人 

8. 加拿大—— 1 人 

8. 荷 兰—— 1 人 

8. 瑞 典—— 1 人 

8. 瑞 士—— 1 人 

8. 新西兰—— 1 人 

在这期间,GDP 排名:

1. 美国 

2. 日本 

3. 德国 

4. 法国 

5. 英国 

6. 意大利 

7. 巴西 

8. 西班牙 

9. 加拿大 

10. 俄国 

11. 印度 

12. 澳大利亚 

(中国没有放入) 

下面看看都是哪些人有了苗头能获诺贝尔奖。我预测,有获得诺贝尔奖潜力的有如下几位,并给出他们获奖的理由: 

1. 袁隆平的杂交水稻。这个归入生理与医学奖有点道理,因为按照遗传学的基础研究,包括植物三羧酸循环光合作用等都归入了这个大筐子里。 

2. 南京大学去年张辰宇教授团队的发现:植物的微小核糖核酸(microRNA)可以通过日常食物摄取的方式进入人体血液和组织器官。并且,一旦进入体内,它们将通过调控人体内靶基因表达的方式影响人体的生理功能,进而发挥生物学作用。 给“吃什么长什么”找到了科学证据,以前只知道外来的遗传物质能进入人体细胞表达自己的基因,现在证明外来遗传物质还可以调控人体基因的表达。 

3. 清华大学特招生蒋方舟的特异功能表达途径。她自称在她还没有识字的童年,一边靠查字典识字一边写小说,并在九岁时完成长篇巨著出版了。这完全打破了人类的认知常识,诺贝尔奖就特别喜欢这类羊群里出骆驼的新奇发明。按照常识,不识字的人无法靠查字典写文章的,因为你不识字,你无法知道字典里给出的解释。何况中文字典同音字特别多。比如你会拼音,而查第三声的 jiang ,就有奖、讲、蒋、桨等等很多很多字,由于你不识字,无法知道哪个是你要的,你不认识下面的解释,根本就无法写出长篇巨著。她妈是比韩寒的爹还出名的作家,但她娘俩否认以蒋方舟出版的书是她妈写的, 不是她妈的杰作。清华大学就把这天才以特长生招入,因为高考时蒋方舟的语文不及格。韩寒的爹以儿子的名义出书时韩寒可以抄写了,虽然这傻儿子文学白痴抄出了“四两拔干片”“功号一贯”等上百个笑话。相比之下,清华大学的招牌蒋方舟边查字典边识字边写畅销小说的方法厉害多了,能调动大脑的特异功能,应该能获得诺贝尔生理与医学奖,推广后,对人类的贡献太大了。 

其他人到底谁能获奖,我就不知道了,尤其那些不在我熟知的领域里的大牛。但王立军与大葱涨价的线性数学关系应该能获得阿贝尔数学奖。美国高盛也能获得一项诺贝尔经济学奖。 

王立军能在薄熙来手下人重重包围下跑掉,靠的是将计就计。王立军得知薄熙来已经给他安排好了抑郁症证明而被自杀,其证明开出的医院刚好在高速路不远处,他就将计就计,开车去了该医院。嗖的一下就去了女厕所,在里边迅速打扮成一个胖乎乎的老太太,出来后再走到精神病房间的外面。把带来的两根大葱插入鼻孔,就大摇大摆地从精神病房走廊的大门走了出来。这就把跟踪他的便衣给甩掉了。然后乘王鹏举安排好的车去了成都。运筹帷幄胸有成竹的薄熙来跑到昆明喂鸟去了,等待王立军自杀身亡的消息再跑回来召开英雄王立军烈士追悼大会。在会上该怎么痛哭流涕,他早想好并预演几次了。 

王立军到达成都后与四川公安局的同事一起去了饭馆,吃饱喝足离开前把那两根大葱扔给了饭店老板,说是等于10块钱的小费。美领馆听完了王立军鼻子里插大葱成功逃跑的故事,当即通知了美国在中国的高盛集团办事处,高盛集团立刻在全中国收购大葱,垄断了葱源后便把大葱价格提高到每根5块钱,每次至少要买两根。这就是为何王立军跑到美领馆第三天开始大葱突然涨价到每根5块钱而且必须要买两根以上否则不卖给你的原因。 

对于商人来说,任何一个政治事件都是发财的机会,关键是灵感。历史终将证明:(1)任何领域都离不开数学,任何学科领域的事件都能用数学表达。(2)薄熙来以为自己是一根葱,但事实上他不是;薄熙来以为王立军不是一根葱,事实上,他是两根葱。而且是价码很高的葱。 

2002年,挪威政府宣布创设阿贝尔数学奖,用以纪念挪威数学家 Niels Henrik Abel (1802 — 1829) 诞生200周年,并致力于推动全球数学科学的进步。 

该奖项的奖金约合80万美元,直追诺贝尔奖。2003年首次颁奖。中国人都说美国人数学不好,中国人数学好,看看数学奖的情况,一目了然。 

2003 — 2012 年,共计有来自5个国家的12名数学家获得阿贝尔数学奖: 

美 国—— 6 人 


法 国—— 3 人

英 国—— 1 人 
 

瑞 典—— 1 人 

匈牙利—— 1 人 

自2003年正式设立以来,阿贝尔数学奖逐年颁发,每年原则上只授予一位数学家,奖励他一生的数学研究成就。美国囊括总数的一半。虽然每年的奥数比赛,中国都显现出一大批出类拔萃的数学天才,并扬言美国人数学不好,但奥数比赛一过,中国那些在父母的威逼利诱下靠做题多熟能生巧的数学天才们就朝托福、鸡阿姨跑去了,到海外后改学赚钱多的领域了;或者留在国内最终在升官、发财争当人上人的汪洋大海中销声匿迹。伟大的数学家都是把爱好放在第一位才成功的。

数学领域的“诺贝尔奖”——菲尔兹奖(1936—2010年)历次获奖国家排名: 


美 国—— 17 人(其中 1 人为华裔) 

法 国—— 11 人

俄 国—— 9 人 

英 国—— 7 人 

日 本—— 3 人 

比利时—— 2 人 

澳大利亚—— 1 人(华裔) 

德 国—— 1 人

瑞 典—— 1 人

意大利—— 1 人

以色列—— 1 人 

菲尔兹奖每4年颁发一次,原则上只授予40 岁以下的数学家。 

以上这两个数学大奖,一个是从1936年开始,一个是从2003年开始,至今在中国的中国公民还没有获奖者,但在海外有两华裔获奖:丘成桐、陶哲轩。 

结论: 

如果今后的十年内,中国没有大约10位在自然科学领域的诺贝尔奖(包括两大数学奖)得主,那就表明:要么中国的GDP 数据不是真的,是房地产大泡沫未爆前的昙花一现;要么表明按照地球村的规则中国的经济发展模式不正常,这样的发展也就不能持续,山寨国没有创新能力。至今,我只看到了令我佩服的袁隆平、张辰宇做出了杰出贡献的两大科学家有望获奖。令我拍手称奇的能震住清华招生办的蒋方舟、能让薄熙来捶胸顿足的王立军两大奇才,二人不论是否得奖都能青史留名,因为中国人最佩服的要么是靠骗术获得成功的天才要么是靠三十六计转败为胜的内斗英雄。

来源:http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Military/38544819.html

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