驳《质疑派”兵败滑铁卢?——驳对“韩三篇”的代笔质疑》by 老乔look1m

 【】内为新浪博客希ID 波克拉底门徒(搜狐微博ID为@波克拉底的学生 ) 的博客文章内容。红色字是我的反驳。
  这位博主先提炼出质疑人士的结论【质疑派目前的推断是:韩寒父亲先在自己博客上发表了文章,很可能是他代笔的,然后由韩寒或其他人修改后转贴到自己的博客上。】
  然后再给出自己的评判标准【一个假说、推断或者理论要成立,首先要有逻辑上的自洽性,如果逻辑自相矛盾,那么这种假说、推断或者理论就无法成立。】
  接着再根据这个标准去分析质疑人士的结论【那么质疑派的推断要成立,首先要回答下面这个逻辑上的不自洽:既然是韩寒父亲代笔,为什么不直接在韩寒博客上写文章,而是多此一举先在自己的博客上写出来,然后让韩寒或者其他什么人转过去?】上面这些,都没什么问题,至少展示了这博主正常的智力与逻辑能力,就目前中国的教育水平来说,也对得其自称的“学术界硕士研究生”的身份。当然,前提是如果他不写下面这些话的话。
  可惜,这学生接着就开始自抽脸写下了【方粉会自圆其说:那是韩仁均误操作了,他本来想发在韩寒博客上的,结果登陆到自己博客上,写完后才发现错误的。】----这是一个稻草人,是博主臆测出来的。即使是有质疑人士做了这样的假设,也不是主流解释。
  博主在造出稻草人后,就开始佯装分析【上图分别是在2011-11-3、12-23和2012-1-8三天分别发表的,中间间隔将近2个月。如果是“登陆错误”,那么韩仁均就在这三个分开的时间点、两个月内连续“登陆错误”,而且还不自知。可能吗?大家都知道,韩寒对于“韩三篇”是非常用心的,因为涉及重大的政治意义,可能会引起极大的影响,不论是对自己还是对家人,还是对这个社会,不论是负面的还是正面的,从韩三篇发表以来数百万的评论回复就可以看出。如此重视的态度,可能有三次连续的、低级的、不自知的登陆错误吗?事实上第一次“登陆错误”就应该知道的,即使韩仁均自己不知道,韩寒或者其他什么人都会知道并告知他。】可惜可能这位博主想不明白,就算是你分析的正确,它也只能是驳倒了你的稻草人,而不能证明韩寒的文章一定是自己写的,韩寒他爹一定不是代笔者。
  因此博主得出的这个【方粉所说的“韩仁均先写,然后韩寒转到自己博客再修改”的推断是不成立的,除非能圆满解释逻辑的不自洽。】结论是没有价值的。
    事实上,质疑人士根本不需要弄清楚“先发到韩寒他爹的博客上,而后才再发到韩寒自己的博客上”的原因,只需要就此质疑就可。需要解释清楚的,是韩寒跟他爹。可是现在韩寒跟他爹解释了吗?没有,而是删除了这些受到质疑的博客。这难道不是做贼心虚?
  身为肖粉的博主当然不会对自己下手这么恨,所以他根本就无视自己的逻辑混乱,而是直接给出了进一步的结论,一个建立的臆测之上的结论【“这件事前前后后都是韩寒一个人干的”。】然后解释道:【具体来说,就是韩寒将自己的父亲的博客作为草稿箱,先预先发表,或者是想看看页面效果(谨慎的表现),或者是仅仅是个人的写作习惯,或者是让小范围的亲友看看(因为可能涉及政治因素和不可预测的社会反响),以征求大家的意见,确保稳妥再稳妥,然后再转到自己的博客上去。】----一个充斥着假设的解释。韩寒将他爹的博客当草稿、当预览页面这两个假设就相当于“韩寒将他爹的媳妇…当…”一样。这种可能性有多大?难道不能自己另行注册一个博客当草稿?又:韩寒以前可是说过二十万字一气呵成不需要大幅度修改、韩三篇早在2011年初就写成了等话的。博主要不要来替他自洽一下?
  博主为自己的结论假设了证据之后,继续为自己的假设进行新的假设(这博主真是学术界硕士?我看可以去华尔街干金融发行次次级债券了)【韩寒知道父亲的微博密码,并且经常上他的微博看信息发私信,微博与博客密码相同,非常可能韩寒就是习惯用父亲的博客打草稿,见今年年初韩寒发给石述思的私信,他用的就是父亲的微博账号:】,这个假设无异是打韩寒的一记耳光。原因见上一段关于韩寒说韩三篇的写作时间与关于自己写文章的不打草稿一气弄成的特长。
  【这条最有力:2007年韩寒的新浪博客曾出现过黑客盗用事件,黑客曾用韩寒的博客账号冒名留言。大家都清楚韩寒非常重视韩三篇,因此为了稳妥起见,就先在不怎么知名的父亲博客里写博文,待完成后再发表到自己博客上[4]。】这条也确实最有力,不过是打博主自己的耳光最有力。博主,你声称的逻辑自洽呢?你能回答韩寒既需要一个不知名的博客打草稿而又不自己注册一个博客的原因吗?
  【韩寒有打草稿的习惯,“一体成型”并非“一气呵成”“文不加点”。比如,韩寒《三重门》如此多的涂改痕迹包括前面作废的数万字章节。】这条更有力,不过是打韩寒的。原因还是韩寒自已说的写作时间。这博主难道是真正的韩黑?要把韩寒自己的话都推翻,然后自己再假设出来一套来,告诉我们说“这才是真实的韩寒,韩寒自己说的都是假的”!是吗?
  【最后所谓“父辈”和“爷辈”的修改,被方粉认为是韩寒代笔的另一铁证。恰恰相反,他是韩寒自己创作的另一铁证。为什么呢?简单来说,“父辈”和“爷辈”在文章里都可用。大家不知道美国有部电影,叫做《父辈的旗帜》,讲的是美军二战期间攻占日本硫磺岛的历史。这部电影2006-10-20上映,“父辈”当然是指二战的美国兵,根据方舟子的逻辑,难道这部电影就是只针对韩仁均那样年龄的美国人吗?因为只有韩仁均那一代人的“父辈”才上过二战或解放战争。当然不是,这部电影是面向全美所有年龄段的观众。认真的方粉是否会建议这部电影改名“同辈、父辈、爷辈的旗帜”才妥当呢?“父辈”跟“前辈”“先辈”一样,只是泛指,韩寒的初稿写“父辈”没错。改为“爷辈”,更没错,反而显得幽默、准确。由此看出韩寒的创作过程。】博主,质疑人士也是根据由父辈改成爷辈更准确而推测出这很可能不是韩寒写的,而你根据同样的原因做了完全不同的推测---即便是这两种推测都存着的可能性(实际上是你推测的成立的可能性更小,因为这一是篇发表在韩寒他爹的博客上的文章,这处改动符合韩寒他爹到韩寒本人的身份变化,相互佐证,可能性更大),那你为什么有脸说你的推测驳倒了对方的推测呢?
  【质疑将近一年,教主和彭母知再次拾起“文本分析”,大家是否有种穿越的感觉?结果还是逃脱不了顽抗、失败、再顽抗、再失败,直到最后灭亡的命运。】这个结论不值一驳,只是结合博主自己在前面树的逻辑大旗更显可笑而已。
  原博主参考文献一并帖出:
  [1]勤劳十点:fjfh6602 sina 我的2011. http://weibo.com/1863428481/z5vwsnh0S
  [2]方舟子:韩三篇为韩仁均所写铁证.http://weibo.com/1454382185/z5BIsbQJc
  [3]倍魄:发现韩寒代笔证据操作指南.http://weibo.com/1408034522/z5D831FGd
  [4]韩寒博客被盗事件. http://cq.qq.com/a/20070530/000131.htm
    [5]父辈的旗帜. http://movie.douban.com/subject/1478066/

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方舟子这次在逻辑上产生了严重漏洞,下面我会逐条说明

访客的头像

方舟子这次在逻辑上产生了严重漏洞,下面我会逐条说明,这里我先提醒方舟子一句,你如果不马上认识到自己这次的错误并改正,你就和韩二和韩粉一样愚蠢和无赖了,倒韩事业也会因此大受损失。

1、“可惜可能这位博主想不明白,就算是你分析的正确,它也只能是驳倒了你的稻草人,而不能证明韩寒的文章一定是自己写的,韩寒他爹一定不是代笔者。”

请问,韩二为什么要证明自己的文章一定是自己写的?韩二署自己的名发表文章,或者先署他爹的名在他爹的账号上发表,然后改到他自己的账号,只要他爹没有提出反对,韩二就有证据上的先入优势,你是质疑方你要证明韩二的文章不是他自己写的,举证责任在你,请问,文章首发在他爹的账号上能证明文章不是他自己写的吗?

2、“需要解释清楚的,是韩寒跟他爹。可是现在韩寒跟他爹解释了吗?没有,而是删除了这些受到质疑的博客。这难道不是做贼心虚?”

没有解释不代表放弃权利,群众在街上抓到一个疑似小偷,该疑似人不说话不辩解他就肯定是小偷了吗?就算他到了公安局他还是可以不说话不辩解,甚至在法庭上他都可以不说话不辩解,除非法官拿到铁证,不然无法判罪,请问,发错账号的可能性存在不存在,发错账号算不算铁证?

删除博客就算是心虚吗?如果删除就算心虚,那么我们以后写文章就和象棋比赛那样落子无悔了,所有作家东删西改的手稿都是他们心虚的证明了,如果删除就算心虚,那么全世界也只有韩二的心是不虚的了,因为只有他的手稿是没有删改过的。

3、“----一个充斥着假设的解释。韩寒将他爹的博客当草稿、当预览页面这两个假设就相当于“韩寒将他爹的媳妇…当…”一样。这种可能性有多大?难道不能自己另行注册一个博客当草稿?又:韩寒以前可是说过二十万字一气呵成不需要大幅度修改、韩三篇早在2011年初就写成了等话的。博主要不要来替他自洽一下?”

充斥着假设,难道方舟子和质疑派的所有文章不是充斥着假设?

这种可能性有多大,发错账号的可能性极大,你自己不是也说他爹发错账号了吗,难道就许他爹发错账号就不许他孩子发错账号吗?

难道不能自己另行注册一个博客当草稿,韩二为什么要另行注册一个博客当草稿?难道用他爹的账号是宪法禁止的?

一气呵成,早就写成,这和发在哪个账号有关系吗,发在自己账号就是一气呵成,发在他爹账号就是多气呵成,这个逻辑是你妈教你的吗?需不需要你妈替你自洽一下?

4、“即便是这两种推测都存着的可能性(实际上是你推测的成立的可能性更小,因为这一是篇发表在韩寒他爹的博客上的文章,这处改动符合韩寒他爹到韩寒本人的身份变化,相互佐证,可能性更大),那你为什么有脸说你的推测驳倒了对方的推测呢”

你自己都承认了两种可能性都存在,还有什么脸说谁驳倒谁呢?且不说他们那种可能性并不比你那种可能性小,就算比你的小,小的可能性就一定是输给大的可能性的吗?你还是先查一查逻辑学教科书上对可能性这个概念是怎么解释的再出来说话吧,别再不学无术大言不惭到处丢你妈没文化的脸了!

5、“这个结论不值一驳,只是结合博主自己在前面树的逻辑大旗更显可笑而已。”

你全篇在逻辑上狗屁不通还有脸谈什么逻辑的大旗!倒韩倒了快一年了,你们不好好检查一下韩二至今未倒的真正原因,整天窝在家里说一些不痛不痒的废话,放一些狗屁不通的臭屁,倒韩象你们这样能倒成功吗!

骂了这帮没用的傻子这么多,最后说一句,不管有些倒韩傻子再怎么放屁,也丝毫改变不了韩二代笔的事实,因为这是早在半年多前就已经被无数铁证证明过了的。

方舟子这次在逻辑上产生了严重漏洞,下面我会逐条说明

提醒方舟子和一些倒韩傻子的头像

方舟子这次在逻辑上产生了严重漏洞,下面我会逐条说明,这里我先提醒方舟子一句,你如果不马上认识到自己这次的错误并改正,你就和韩二和韩粉一样愚蠢和无赖了,倒韩事业也会因此大受损失。

1、“可惜可能这位博主想不明白,就算是你分析的正确,它也只能是驳倒了你的稻草人,而不能证明韩寒的文章一定是自己写的,韩寒他爹一定不是代笔者。”

请问,韩二为什么要证明自己的文章一定是自己写的?韩二署自己的名发表文章,或者先署他爹的名在他爹的账号上发表,然后改到他自己的账号,只要他爹没有提出反对,韩二就有证据上的先入优势,你是质疑方你要证明韩二的文章不是他自己写的,举证责任在你,请问,文章首发在他爹的账号上能证明文章不是他自己写的吗?

2、“需要解释清楚的,是韩寒跟他爹。可是现在韩寒跟他爹解释了吗?没有,而是删除了这些受到质疑的博客。这难道不是做贼心虚?”

没有解释不代表放弃权利,群众在街上抓到一个疑似小偷,该疑似人不说话不辩解他就肯定是小偷了吗?就算他到了公安局他还是可以不说话不辩解,甚至在法庭上他都可以不说话不辩解,除非法官拿到铁证,不然无法判罪,请问,发错账号的可能性存在不存在,发错账号算不算铁证?

删除博客就算是心虚吗?如果删除就算心虚,那么我们以后写文章就和象棋比赛那样落子无悔了,所有作家东删西改的手稿都是他们心虚的证明了,如果删除就算心虚,那么全世界也只有韩二的心是不虚的了,因为只有他的手稿是没有删改过的。

3、“----一个充斥着假设的解释。韩寒将他爹的博客当草稿、当预览页面这两个假设就相当于“韩寒将他爹的媳妇…当…”一样。这种可能性有多大?难道不能自己另行注册一个博客当草稿?又:韩寒以前可是说过二十万字一气呵成不需要大幅度修改、韩三篇早在2011年初就写成了等话的。博主要不要来替他自洽一下?”

充斥着假设,难道方舟子和质疑派的所有文章不是充斥着假设?

这种可能性有多大,发错账号的可能性极大,你自己不是也说他爹发错账号了吗,难道就许他爹发错账号就不许他孩子发错账号吗?

难道不能自己另行注册一个博客当草稿,韩二为什么要另行注册一个博客当草稿?难道用他爹的账号当草稿是宪法禁止的?

一气呵成,早就写成,这和发在哪个账号有关系吗,发在自己账号就是一气呵成,发在他爹账号就是多气呵成,这个逻辑是你妈教你的吗?需不需要你妈替你自洽一下?

4、“即便是这两种推测都存着的可能性(实际上是你推测的成立的可能性更小,因为这一是篇发表在韩寒他爹的博客上的文章,这处改动符合韩寒他爹到韩寒本人的身份变化,相互佐证,可能性更大),那你为什么有脸说你的推测驳倒了对方的推测呢”

你自己都承认了两种可能性都存在,还有什么脸说谁驳倒谁呢?且不说他们那种可能性并不比你那种可能性小,就算比你的小,小的可能性就一定是输给大的可能性的吗?你还是先查一查逻辑学教科书上对可能性这个概念是怎么解释的再出来说话吧,别再不学无术大言不惭到处丢你妈没文化的脸了!

5、“这个结论不值一驳,只是结合博主自己在前面树的逻辑大旗更显可笑而已。”

你全篇在逻辑上狗屁不通还有脸谈什么逻辑的大旗?倒韩倒了快一年了,你们不好好检查一下韩二至今未倒的真正原因,整天宅在家里说一些不痛不痒的废话,放一些狗屁不通的臭屁,倒韩象你们这样能倒成功吗!

骂了这帮没用的傻子这么多,最后说一句,不管有些倒韩傻子再怎么放屁,也丝毫改变不了韩二代笔的事实,因为这是早在半年多前就已经被无数铁证证明过了的。

@希波克拉底的学生 这个孩子太弱智了,他更像是低能儿的学生

红猫上尉的头像

@希波克拉底的学生 这个孩子太弱智了,他更像是低能儿的学生,《父辈的旗帜》里的詹姆斯不就是那位老兵的儿子吗,照片中六名美国士兵之一?Flags of Our Fathers,不叫父辈的旗帜又叫什么?若是某位老兵孙子,片名还真得改做《爷辈的旗帜》,Flags of Our Grandfathers。弱智,实在弱智。

韩寒是骗子,连赛车都是假的

访客的头像

韩寒是骗子,连赛车都是假的。你看贴图里fjfh上一篇博客开头就是“去年,我的赛车成绩还不错。。。”

既然fjfh就是韩仁均,那么就是韩仁均自己承认是他代赛了。

请方舟子看看,这个也是铁证呢,不但韩寒的文章是假的,连赛车都是假的!

 

也谈逻辑的自洽性。

罗技的头像

也谈逻辑的自洽性。

对韩寒的质疑和反质疑双方在韩仁均博客上发现“论革命”等文章有如下共识:1.韩仁均的博客先发了“论革命”的文章。2.该文章若韩仁均所写,表示署名韩寒的“论革命”文章为韩仁均所代笔。3.该文章若韩寒所写,用的是韩仁均的博客,那韩寒是署名韩仁均博客的代笔。4.除此外,无第三种可能,而无论出现上述2.3.的情况,代笔都成立。无论是韩仁均为韩寒的代笔,或是韩寒为韩仁均代笔(这样的概率极微)。

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Good news travels fast.

 

HYst     2017.9.13

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